“Whenever there is a simple error that most laymen fall for, there is always a slightly more sophisticated version of the same problem that experts fall for.”
—Cognitive psychologist Amos Tversky (1937-1996)
Psychologist Ken Pope has drawn together some of the most common fallacies in psychological assessment, and provided a brief definition and discussion of each.
The list, of course, is far from exhaustive, but these 10 often show up in clinical, forensic, and other psychological assessments and, writes Dr. Pope, “I'm guessing that many if not all of us have gotten tangled up in them at one time or another”.
They are:
- mismatched validity
- confirmation bias
- confusing retrospective and prospective accuracy (switching conditional probabilities)
- unstandardizing standardized tests
- ignoring the effects of low base rates
- misinterpreting dual high base rates
- perfect conditions fallacy
- financial bias
- ignoring the effects of audio-recording, video-recording, or the presence of third-party observers
- uncertain gatekeeping
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